Every holiday season brings a surge in shipping, warehousing, transportation and distribution activity. Distribution and fulfilment centers and logistic networks shift into overdrive with orders increasing, inventory turning faster and staff expanding to meet demand. But among the excitement of high volumes and booming sales lies the threats accompanying this time of year: cargo theft, pilferage, fraud and inventory shrinkage.
According to CargoNet, cargo theft rose exponentially in 2024, showing a 27% increase since 2023. While the National Retail Federation (NRF) reported that U.S. retailers lost an estimated $112 billion to shrink in 2022. Within that figure, external theft accounted for approximately 36% of the total, while 29% was due to employee theft. The remaining share was attributed to process errors and administrative oversight, which often increase during high-volume periods where resources are stretched thin.
To meet rising demand, many shipments with tight deadlines are often pushed through with fewer buffers and limited time for quality checks. The pressure to hit delivery targets can often lead to shortcuts and overlooked security steps, all while temporary staffing, compressed timelines and increased orders combined to create ideal opportunities for theft and loss, which are then exploited by criminals.
Why Distribution is Especially Vulnerable During the Holidays
From warehouse floors to delivery routes, the entire distribution chain faces more risk during the holiday season. The amalgamation of speed, stress and seasonal staffing creates vulnerabilities that sophisticated thieves know how to exploit.
Supply Chain and Logistics Pressure
The holiday rush to stock retailers and fulfil e-commerce orders puts logistic channels under immense pressure. Volumes spike and tightened delivery periods increase the likelihood of oversight gaps. Seasonal workers, who are often brought in to meet demand, may not be fully trained in security or verification practices, while also being a risk themselves. Meanwhile, reroutes, carrier changes and overloads can create weak points that can be susceptible to fraud, theft or misdelivery.
Reduced Oversight and Longer Asset Exposure
As operations stretch to meet deadlines, trailers and containers may sit longer than usual due to delays or closures, creating easy targets. According to Global Trade Magazine, there were 174 significant theft events during the six-day window around Thanksgiving for the last five years. Simultaneously, holiday schedules mean few personal actively monitoring, making it easier for theft or tampering to go unnoticed.
Sophistication of Theft Operations
Today’s holiday risk landscape isn’t just limited to opportunistic break-ins. It is more strategic and organized than ever. Criminal groups use tactics such as infiltrating seasonal staffing, impersonating carriers, double-brokering loads or making up pickup requests to intercept shipments. Many of these groups track logistic patterns, identifying overburden carries and targeting where oversight is weakest. These groups often know exactly when, where and how to strike most effectively.
High Value Items in Motion
During the holidays, the type of cargo moving through supply chains shifts. Electronics, vehicle accessories, household appliances and other high-value items are in peak circulation. According to CargoNet, the average value of stolen holiday period shipments reached $360,528 in 2024, making the risk–reward calculation even more favorable for criminals.
The Rise of Holiday Warehouse Theft
As the holiday rush grows more fervent, the risk landscape changes. Warehouse theft prevention is no longer about a few missing items; it’s about protecting millions of dollars in merchandise during short and high-pressure windows of time. In 2023, CargoNet estimated an average value of $188,617 per theft event that happened across the U.S. and Canada while reaching $202,364 per incident in 2024.
Staffing and operational disruptions magnify vulnerability. Many facilities rely on temporary or seasonal workers, who may be less experienced or lack training, and operate with extended shifts with reduced supervision. These conditions not only create opportunities for external theft but also for internal pilferage, as seasonal staff may be tempted by high-value, easily resold goods. Without proper onboarding and oversight, small acts of theft can quickly escalate to significant losses.
The pace of distribution also introduces gaps in processes. Dock doors remain open longer, pallets sit unattended, and the hurried timing makes it easier for discrepancies to slip by unnoticed. These small losses or “slow leaks” can add up quickly when multiplied over thousands of shipments. Organized theft rings exploit these conditions. These criminals are becoming increasingly strategic, often timing their operations to coincide with peak shipping periods when security is stretched thin, leaving gaps in protocol for them to use.
Mitigating these risks requires proactive and layered controls. Training and supervision are critical as they emphasize accountability and transparency which can deter opportunistic theft. While increased supervisor presence on the floor reduces incidents significantly.
By addressing both external and internal threats together, logistics teams can reduce shrink, safeguard high-value shipments and maintain operational stability during the most pressured period of the year.
Plan Ahead for Peak Season Security
Talk to a Protos expert today to build a proactive security strategy that keeps your seasonal operations efficient and secure.
The Cost of Inaction
Holiday theft doesn’t just eat into profit, it disrupts operations, damages morale and can erode customer trust when orders are delayed or canceled. With average shoplifting incidents increasing by over 90% between 2019 and 2023, according to the NRF, the trend is unmistakable: risk is rising, and the holiday rush amplifies it.
Every year, organizations that treat security as an afterthought during peak season pay the price in lost merchandise, overtime investigations and brand fallout. In contrast, those that invest early in logistics security solutions and theft prevention not only protect their inventory but also gain operational stability and customer confidence.
Secure the Season Before It Starts
The holiday surge is both a logistical opportunity and a security test. Rising theft rates, overextended teams and fast-moving inventory demand more than reactive measures, they require a comprehensive and data-driven approach to holiday shrinkage control and internal theft mitigation.
By addressing internal and external risks together, investing in surge-ready personnel and reinforcing procedural discipline, logistics leaders can turn vulnerability into resilience. The key is preparation because by the time the rush begins, it’s already too late to build new defenses.
Protect Your Peak Season with Protos Security
If your operation is gearing up for the holidays, now is the time to secure your facilities. Protos Security specializes in logistics security solutions that safeguard distribution and fulfillment networks during the year’s most critical weeks. Protos delivers the experience and resources needed to keep your supply chain protected.
Contact Protos Security today to design a customized strategy for seasonal goods protection, minimize your exposure and keep your peak season running safely and profitably.
Stay Ahead of Seasonal Risks
Connect with our team to develop a proactive logistics security plan tailored to your warehouse or distribution network.
